Shomron Center for Economic Policy Research

In Search for an efficient Institutions

July 4, 2015
by Moshe
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Notes on New and Old Military Justice, Army’s ethics & Morale

Modern military Justice punishes officers and soldiers of democratic nations’ armies  for their military success. “Excessive use of force” and similar artificial judicial constructions  undermine incentives of army officers, making the military machine virtually inoperative.  Artificially abridged Army capability prevents any opportunities to win the fight against terror, to defend democratic nations and to break trap of  violent dictatorship or warlords brutality  for peoples of rogue / failed states. Shurat a Din conference “Towards a new Law of War” addressed the  issues such as human shields, proportionality, fighting in civilian areas, defining war crimes in attempt to propose solution of the problem, to restore Democratic nations’ ability to defend themselves against Islamic  terrorism. Our comments are based on our extensive research program on the issues of Governments’ failures to provide sustainable defense for the people. The comments focused on the most obvious practical conclusions and recommendations based on the conference materials. The comments also raise some additional problems to be solved in order to restore our Armies’ deterrence capacities.

The notes proposed are poorly edited but, I hope, useful for people interested in the issue:

How to Scrap Modern Military Justice to Restore Army’s Deterrence Capacity.

 

March 31, 2015
by Moshe
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New paper: on selective enforcement of anti-discrimination Legislation

The paper: “The puzzle of selectivity in fighting discrimination: A public choice approach” is very preliminary draft of the text for the coming books on new way to fight Freedom, “fighting minorities’ discrimination”… of course, selectively fighting.

Advocates of the war against discrimination and for affirmative action claim it is necessary to set up additional regulatory procedures that will defend interests of minorities who, previously, were not given enough chances to succeed. Because there is no set definition of a minority who suffered from discrimination in the past (Historically Excluded Groups [HEGs] consider all women to be a minority), law-enforcement practices are to a large degree dependent on precedence (judicial authorities) as well as the behavior of bureaucrats who have the authority to defend people against discrimination. Incentives and the true criteria for choosing minorities will be analyzed in this report.
There are practices in the USA and Israel, as well as statistics of EEOC practices (a committee on equal rights in hiring, that is a kind of specialized public prosecution office) supporting the hypothesis that the main anti-discriminatory activity aims to mobilize groups who traditionally voted against a limited government, to vote for a nanny state that provides cradle to grave care.
Keywords: historically excluded groups, pure public goods, discrimination, Limited Government

JEL codes: D72, D73, J15, K31

March 2, 2015
by Moshe
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XX Knesset Elections: What Do These Parties Really Stand for?

Why people less and less interested in the parties’ electoral platforms? Why Leftists in spite of numerous failures in security (“Peace Process”) and in spite of poor performance in economic issues are going on in pushing their radical ideas and Rightist so easily surrender their positions?

In proposed short paper we propose our explanation to this phenomena and provide short review of party positions on 11 issues:

1. The judicial / court system reforms
2. Private property, including Real Estate safeguards
3. Taxation / new Governmental spending (mandatory), budget balance / deficit
4. Business climate / business regulations
5. Arabians, Arabian autonomy, Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem statute solution,
6. Freedom of speech, freedom of press and media-market
7.  Education
8.  The IDF statute, tasks, functions and responsibilities, “new military justice” and politicized prosecutions problem;
9. Self-defense and 2nd amendment (Right to bear Arms)
10. Family, Government intervention “to protect” wives against husbands and children against parents
11. Illegal immigration

We are focusing on parties’ deeds not on their platforms, first and foremost.

Israel primaries peculiarities’ short description in comparison with US original pattern provided (see annex 2).

February 9, 2015
by Moshe
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Businessman executed in PRC: versions and implications

“A Chinese mining tycoon (Liu Han) linked to former security tsar Zhou Yongkang has been executed, according to state media.”

Officially, Liu Han, 48, “was found guilty of 13 charges – including murder, organising casinos, running a mafia-style gang and illegally selling firearms”. Incentives to run “mafia-style gang and illegally selling firearms” for successful businessman look pretty weak.

Reasonable version – continuing large scale property and power redistribution in PRC and fall of businessman’s protector – mighty chief of China communist security service Zhou Yongkang caused attack on businesses, left unprotected. “Word of honor” of Chinese communist leaders was highly valued 10-20 years ago. Wide – spread corruption was predictable, obligations of bribe-takers were revered and respectable, their promises – reliably kept.

Intensification of intra-elite conflict broken this “golden age” of Chinese industrial prosperity, curtailing influx of foreign direct private investments, gradually and not so successfully substituted by governmental investments.

Executions of Chinese businessmen and continuation of intra-elite conflict rises the question about prospects of Chinese economic growth and the quality of the latter. We discussed this issue in our book and papers and, unfortunately, our forecasts going to be true.

 

January 18, 2015
by Moshe
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Revisiting Terrorism studies: new papers’ 1st draft

We had started a series of short studies of terrorism “supply” and counter-terrorism “under-supply” incentives since 2004. After few years of break we returned to the issue starting with well forgotten story: how Oslo “peace” process was explained and advocated by needs to stop Arabian riots – so called 1st Intifada. So, here is very preliminary draft of new paper focused on the issue: how well founded were the decisions, made in 1992-94 to introduce radical changes in the terror-fighting strategy of Israel (switch from deterrence of terror to appeasement of terrorists)..

“The First Intifada, the Oslo Accords, and the Escalation of Terror: Causalities Revisited” (January 15, 2015). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2550441

Abstract of the paper:

The analysis of events of the First Intifada focused on the question of how well founded the decisions made at the time were to introduce radical changes in the terror-fighting strategy. Most sources treat the process at Oslo as an outgrowth of Israel’s inability to suppress the Arab riots. We will consider an alternative interpretation in addition to this widespread view. The alternative approach will be based on understanding Oslo as the outcome of developments dictated by certain interests within Israel.

The magnitude of the events of 1987-1990 does nothing to explain the leadership’s refusal to come up with a strategy for fighting terrorism in favor of choosing a strategy of pacification instead. Most of the steps taken by the Israeli leadership in the course of the conflict cannot be adequately explained without taking into account the struggle for power and the evolution of the leftist elite’s interests after their loss of the monopoly of power in 1977 — along with their loss of motives for defending the country or the security of its citizens. Citizen security saw a drastic drop in the priority status it had formerly enjoyed as a state objective. This came in the wake of the disintegration of mechanisms of responsibility and the interest taken by the authorities in providing security.

The Oslo Accords were in no way dictated by the First Intifada; even so, the Intifada is used extensively as a means of Oslo legitimatization. In actuality, one and the same process and one and the same political choice led to both the Oslo Accords and the terror boom.

 

January 7, 2015
by Moshe
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How to make electorate informed: natural way vs. artificial way

There is old, reliable  well tested way to keep voter well informed. To enfranchise taxpayer only and his incentives to keep government accountable will make him well informed soon.

Our Canadian colleagues is searching a way to inform well “first nation” voters heavily depended on budget finance (“Aboriginal issues and spending per First Nations person in Canada rose more than 880 per cent over the past 60 years. In comparison spending per person on all Canadians rose by 387 per cent.”). They pointed out the cases of misuse of governmental money by the bands’ chiefs.  The author of the post – Ravina Bains expresses hope one could introduce new transparency standard for the First Nations which would deliver information about the spending to the bands of Indians, etc preventing Chief’s waste of federal money and more than generous salaries for these budget – extorting activities.

The problem is, the principal incentives of the band is the same as the band’s chief: to extort more money from the Government. The Chief, efficiently leading his band in this rent-extortion would be supported irrespective of his spending quality till the band gets “it fair share”.

Just stop waste federal money, create encouraging taxation and leave people (“First” and all the rest) alone – they will earn money. Provide taxation – representation legal framework, make Chief depended on local taxpayers funded budget, natural incentives would make voter well informed and the chiefs – accountable.

 

November 18, 2014
by Moshe
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Don’t touch private person and his property for 200 years

The best ever prescription of economic prosperity for Government: forget about discretionary arrests and property rights breaches for 200 years: How Democracy Could Cause Economic Growth: The Last 200 Years (November 6, 2014). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2519823

Political competition and independent court  («…But above all, that equal and impartial administration of justice which renders the rights of the meanest British subject respectable to the greatest, and which, by securing to every man the fruits of his own industry, gives the greatest and most effectual encouragement to every sort of industry») prevent Government from Private Persons rights and property breaches. Secured private property opens window of opportunities for long run economic growth.

So, the concept of property rights must include the protection of the individual in their focus on private property rights protection, alone, respected in various forms of government, are insufficient; what matters is the security of individuals from arbitrary arrest, regardless of type of regime. Discretionary rights of rulers or democratic governments to arrest citizens undermines the protection of private property rights and other attributes classically given to democratic foundations of economic growth, for example, free press, freedom of the exercise of religious belief.

 

November 17, 2014
by Moshe
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How Butter Beats the Guns

How citizen, which is fed by Governmental butter loses guns protection: “How Butter Beats the Guns?” (November 12, 2014) by Yanovskiy, Moshe, Syunyaev, Georgiy and Zatcovetsky, Ilia,. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2523605

The correlation of state spending on pure and mixed public goods reflects the making of fundamental choices about state functions. Are pure public good “defense” normal quality provision compatible in Long Run with heavy spending on social sector (i.e. compatible with mixed public goods provision)?

The main hypotheses tested: elected politicians and bureaucrats’ have strong incentives to choose wrong strategies in foreign and military policies if the state extends its responsibility far from the pure public goods provision limits. The case study (Protocol 1, June 8, 1977, to the Geneva Convention of 1949) shows, how “punishment for military success” strategy undermines incentives of army officers, making the military machine virtually inoperative. Artificially abridged Army capability provides the argument for the notion “war is no solution”. The set of the governments credibly ready to obey ratified Convention, are clearly segmented on two subsets. The 1st one includes the Governments bearing military responsibilities, military umbrella-givers, which abstained to impose all Protocol caused risks on the army officers (non-ratified – USA, Israel; or ratified with strong reservations – UK, France, Germany) and the rest democratic countries – which are military umbrella-takers, ratified the Protocol without significant reservations.

Statistical analysis of Great Powers military spending historical trends used to test the main hypothesis. For the bureaucrats and for Leftists  better to spend more money for butter to buy political support than “to waste” budget money for defense. Preliminary statistical analysis fails to reject it. We believe bureaucratic competition for staff /for budget share  and Universal suffrage (Lefts electoral successes) caused wrong incentives  and provide satisfactory explanation of this phenomena of intentionally wrong strategy choice in Security and Defense.

September 17, 2014
by Moshe
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How to measure Democracy and Economic Freedom?

How to measure Democracy? See Polity Indices! How to measure Economic Freedom – see EFW Indices.
How to measure Political institutions quality for better assessment of economic growth dependency on the Freedom and on Democracy? Try ours’ indices.

 

One, who searching for assessment of Democracy quality at Polity could be discouraged by some comparisons:

“Marker” Regimes     Regimes with the same rating         
The Kingdom of Denmark prior to 1834, Prussia during the same period, and many other European monarchies  (-10),[1]Russian Empire and Norway prior to 1905; during the same period (-7); US-, British-, and French-occupied zones of West Germany in 1945-58     (-6); the Netherlands of the first half of the 19th century (-6 – -7) The Chinese Empire of the early 19th century – 6; Stalinist USSR 1933-1952   -9;  Maoist PR of China 1948-1975 (-8-9);   Hitler’s Germany (-9)
“Democratic Cambodia” (Cambodia ruled by the “Khmer Rouge”) -7 – unique case of negative political competition: citizens competed for inclusion in the unique one million selected for survival (rather than the authorities or political parties competing for citizens’ support, or at least both citizens and politicians being “indifferent” to each other with zero-level competition, and so on).
The Russian Federation 1992 +5; 1993-99 +3 The Russian Federation 2000 – 2006 +6; 2007-2010 +4

 

[1] As a rule, different forms of consultative estate representation were in evidence in these countries, from the local level to the state; freedom of exit, including the evidently more free countries, relative freedom of entrepreneurship and hire, relative protection for private life and property; absence of anything even remotely resembling mass repressions against potential opposition (USSR, China) or even persons potentially capable of doubting the rightness of actions undertaken by the authorities (Democratic Cambodia). In Norway (-7), a constitution thoroughly liberal by the standards of the time was in effect, and served as a model for the requirements for a liberal constitution in Denmark (Busk, Paulssen, 2007).

So, We developed simplest and better fit for comparative analysis indicators. See for details: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2495839

July 9, 2014
by Moshe
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New IDF operation in Gaza raises old questions

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) just started new operation “Protective Edge” against HAMAS terrorists in Gaza.
The most prominent right-wing leader in Israel – Knesset vice-speaker Moshe Feiglin loudly objected the operation (The Knesset security Commission seating in Sderot – discussion in Hebrew – last minute). He insists, until the Israel will be ready to drop the Oslo agreement –  no reason to waste time and resources for operations of this sort. It means, Israel should to resettle Gaza, to cover the region by full-fledged provision of law and order for unlimited long run period. It means, first to annex, then to enter Gaza – once and forever. The operation, on Feiglin’s opinion, could just defend failing “Peace Process” and to deliver to “dovish activists”  more pretexts to harass  IDF officers and soldiers for their well done job.
Latest situations’  development: HAMAS broadly uses alive shield already. The IDF officers’ problems with new-fashion military “justice” are coming soon.
Just for reference: Geneva Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (original version) leaves all responsibility for “protected persons” (civilians’ lives) on the side which uses “alive shield”. USA and Israel never ratified Protocol 1, June 8, 1977 which reversed the situation (see for details http://ssrn.com/abstract=2236354). Leftist extremists both in US and in Israel try to press the Armies to behave as if our countries did ratified Protocol 1 and treaty on International criminal court. For some details and history of dynamics of military Justice and enforcement practices in Israel and motivation behind it see http://ssrn.com/abstract=2425418.